Philippines forecast to be second fastest-growing economy in SE Asia through 2035

Philippines projected to be second fastest-growing economy in SE Asia until 2035

BusinessWorld
September 17, 2026

THE PHILIPPINES could emerge as Southeast Asia’s second fastest-growing major economy over the next decade, with growth averaging 5.8% through 2035, according to a report by Bain & Company, DBS Group Holdings, and Vriens & Partners. 

In the Southeast Asia Outlook 2026-2035 report released on Wednesday, the Philippine economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8% from 2026 to 2035 under the baseline scenario.

“The Philippines, which has a favorable demographic tailwind, could grow at a 5.8% average annual rate as consumption, infrastructure, and governance reforms unlock investment,” the report said.

This would make the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth the second-fastest among the six major Southeast Asian economies covered by the report, behind only Vietnam, which is projected to expand by an average of 6.2% annually until 2035.

The Philippine economy is expected to outpace Indonesia (5.4%), Malaysia (4.3%), Singapore (2.7%), and Thailand (2.2%).

Philippine GDP growth over the 10-year horizon is also above the 4.8% average for the six Southeast Asian economies.

The latest regional forecast for Southeast Asia is slower than the earlier average expansion of 5.1% for the 2024-2034 period, reflecting a more complex and volatile global environment.

However, the Philippine economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown this year, averaging 2.6% in the first half. The government is targeting 3.5%-4.5% GDP growth for 2026, and 5%-6% annually from 2027 to 2030.

Despite its relatively strong baseline forecast, the Philippines is also among the Southeast Asian economies facing the greatest downside exposure, according to the report.

The report noted that Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand would be the most exposed under a downside scenario because of their “capital-flow sensitivities, energy dependence, political uncertainty, and weaker structural momentum.”

Under more favorable global conditions, the Philippines could also capture less upside than Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, which are better positioned to benefit from their roles in capital intermediation and global manufacturing supply chains. 

“Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines see more limited benefit, as persistent structural constraints limit their ability to translate an improved external environment into stronger growth,” the report said.

The Philippines’ favorable demographics, steady remittance inflows, and consumption-led  economic model provide some insulation from disruptions to global trade, it added.

However, it warned that the country’s dependence on imported energy, weaknesses in policy implementation and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disruption to the outsourcing industry could prevent the economy from reaching its full potential.

The report also pointed to longer-term risks from AI-driven automation to the country’s business process outsourcing industry.

“Without stronger energy security and governance consistency, growth could be capped below the Philippines’ potential,” it said.

The report said that one of the Philippines’ immediate challenges is managing the transition to AI.

“The next few years will be critical; the Philippines must move into higher-value services while sustaining reform momentum through its next leadership transition,” it said.

The country also needs to strengthen its energy system, as gains in Philippine technology services have been constrained partly by limitations in the power grid. 

Across Southeast Asia, the report said growth over the next decade will increasingly depend on stronger institutions, more reliable energy systems and the ability to use AI to raise productivity.

“Dependence on imported energy quickly turns external price shocks into household inflation, while weak policy implementation hinders the conversion of investment commitment into actual deployment,” the report said.

It said grid capacity and reliability will be increasingly important in determining whether economies can expand their industrial bases and support power-intensive AI infrastructure.

The Philippines has already fallen short of the report’s earlier growth expectations. From 2024 to 2025, the economy grew by an average of 5.1%, compared with the 6.1% average assumed in their previous 2024-2034 forecast.

“The Philippines saw growth impeded by weaker investment and public sector execution,” the report said. — Justine Irish D. Tabile